Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Kings of the Hill Through 54/162

Believe it or not the 2012 baseball season is already one-third over. It seems like just yesterday we were gearing up for spring training, and Andy Pettitte was still sitting on his couch eating potato chips. In reality we are 52 games into a revolutionary season in baseball history. For years its been rumored the Commissioners Office was going to add an additional Wild Card team to the playoff mix, and this winter they did. So come October, ten teams, instead of eight, will get a ticket to the dance to compete for the title.

Now it may be cliche, but the age old saying in baseball still prevails, "Pitching wins championships." A 1-2-3 punch rotation backed up by a steel door bullpen will out-duel any murderers row of sluggers everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. An Ace pitcher is the best defense a team can have. The ability to roll your Stud out every five days to close out a series, or stop a losing streak, or even continue a winning streak, is the best asset you can have. Following 2011's surreal pitching performances around the league, a number of players have bridged the winter gap into 2012 to continue the trend. Others have picked up the pace to join the club. Without further ado, the top five pitchers for the first third of 2012.

Top Five

Brandon Beachy, ATL - 72.1 IP, 1.87 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 5-4

Beachy has been the best pitcher in the Majors to this point in the season. As we learned two years ago when Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young, wins aren't everything. Beachy leads the league in ERA and is tied for third in WHIP just behind Matt Cain's 0.92. He is 8 of 11 in quality starts and posts the best BABIP in the majors (.204) with no one even close to him. And while Beachy has a relatively average K/9 of 7.09, the 25 year old righty  is second in the majors in BAA (.179), OBP (.247), SLG (.265), and is tops in OPS (.515). In each of Beachy's four losses the Braves failed to score more then 3 runs in support, which gives him a win/loss record that masks just how good he has been... lights out.

Gio Gonzalez, WSH - 66.1 IP, 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7-2

It was fun when all Washington had was Jordan Zimmerman, and were easier to beat then a blind man at checkers. Then Strasburg came up throwing fireballs and turned some heads. But now with the acquisition of Gio Gonzalez from Oakland this winter, the league collectively should be saying, "Oh shit..." Technically Gonzalez isn't the teams number one starter, but he has certainly pitched like an Ace. While the lefty posts top a ten ERA and WHIP, his real value is in advanced metrics. He leads the league in both BAA (.172) and SLG (.253); and is second only to Brandon Beachy in OPS (.515). Lastly, Gonzalez has been a strike-out machine this season, fanning 84 (second in the league) with a 11.40 K/9 (also second). The only negative, if you want to nit-pic, is his walk rate. Gonzalez has given up 28 walks in just 66.1 innings, which has inflated his WHIP and OBP just a bit. Other then that, his 2012 has been mint.

Fernando Rodney, TB - 26.1 IP, 1.03 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 17 SV

Anyone who is a fantasy baseball addict such as myself knows the cardinal rule of the draft; don't pay for saves. Relievers are like a box of chocolates, you never know what your gonna get. One year they're untouchable, the next they're a wreck (ex. Brad Ligde), and visa versa. Fernando Rodney's career has been just that. Since coming into the Bigs in 2002, only once has his ERA been under 4.00 and WHIP under 1.25. Last year alone he had only 3 saves (4 blown) and a 4.50 ERA; that's struggling. However this season he very well may be the reason the Rays have a legit shot at the AL Pennant. Rodney is the league leader in Saves with 17 (in 18 opportunities). Also, he has been equally as good against righties as lefties, .184/12K and .164/13K respectively, with nearly a 9.0 K/9. All but once this season Rodney has been able to shut the door, and he doesn't seem to be slowing down.

R.A. Dickey, NYM - 73.2 IP, 2.69 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8-1

Dickey doesn't look like much. He's a 37 year old journeyman knuckleballer who bounced around the Majors for eleven years until finally finding a home in Flushing last March. Last season R.A. was as  reliable as anyone for the Mets, and nothing has changed this season. Dickey leads the Majors in quality starts with 10 of 11, and currently sits in a three way tie with Cole Hamels and Lance Lynn for wins with 8. More importantly, Dickey's performance this season can be summed up in one word: Efficiency. He is second in the league in P/IP (14.2) and has not had a base stolen on him yet this season. He has 70K's with only 17 BB's as well. That is pretty impressive especially from a knuckleballer. Finally, Dickey has stepped up when the Mets needed him most. He is 4-1 within the division, with two of those wins coming against the rival Miami Marlins. R.A. provides the Mets with a rock solid number two starter to back up the big fella...

Johan Santana, NYM - 68.0 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3-2

Johan's Met career is a broken record: no support. Santana has 43 wins and 27 losses in 99 starts for New York. This is downright shocking when you see that Santana as a Met has only posted a 3.00+ ERA and 1.20+ WHIP once in four seasons. When he is on the mound he does nothing but give the Mets a chance to win while his team gives him very little in return at the plate or from the pen. This season has been no different. While the run support has been a bit better (5.96 R/G), on five occasions this season, Santana has pitched 6.0+ innings, giving up two or less runs, which resulted in a No Decision or Loss. However there is a bright side. From the end of May to early June the Mets have been hotter then the sun...and so has Santana. In his last two starts, Santana has pitched 18.0 scoreless innings, giving up just four hits and striking out 16. Oh, and did I mention, his last outing on Friday night against St. Louis was the first no-hitter in the fifty year history of the Mets? No big deal. Like I said earlier this week, don't mess with the Johan.

Honorable Mention

Justin Verlander, DET - 87.2 IP, 2.67 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 5-4

The 2011 Cy Young Award winner has lived up to his billing in 2012. Verlander has been a major workhorse for the Tigers this season with 87.2 IP in his 12 starts (3 complete games, leads MLB). Now aside from leading the league in strike-outs (86), Verlander doesn't sit on the podium for any statistic in particular, but his numbers are top ten in nearly every category. Additionally, similar to Brandon Beachy, Verlander's win/loss record does not give his first third justice. In three of his four losses he pitched 8+ innings with a combined ERA of 1.11 with 21K's. All in all, Verlander has not pitched on the heavenly level he did last year, but has thrown well enough to earn himself an honorable mention in the top 5.

~ Shilz

PS. Watch out for Andy Pettitte. 30Ks in last 4 starts. Tonight - 7.1 scoreless, allows 2 hits in win vs Rays

2 comments:

  1. its tough to believe theres no sale, mcdonald, or lynn on this list.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sale and McDonald were heavily considered. Lynn on the other hand started hot but is 2-3 in his last five starts which gave him the bump.

    ReplyDelete