Baseball is a game of streaks. If you notice, the best team doesn't always win the World Series. The team playing the best baseball in the last week of October wins the World Series. For no rhyme or reason a player can go 10 for 12 in a series or knock out five homers in three nights, and then go hit-less for the following five games in a row. That is just the way this cooky sport works. The guys who fail 70% of the time are in the Hall of Fame. So on May 22, 2012 when the Yankees were in fourth place in the AL East trialing Baltimore by 5.5 games, immediate perception was that this team was toast. Maybe they finally went over that hump and can be called, well, old. Or maybe they were built wrong from the start and would never win 90 games if all they did was hit home runs rather then play small ball and manufacture runs. Or maybe the Pineda/Montero deal was the warning sign that ownership actually doesn't have the ability to adapt and field a winning team in an ever-changing league. However, logic should have told us that they would bounce back. The Yankees, the team with the highest payroll in the league, All-Star infield, and the short porch in right would all come together to restore order to the baseball universe. Now, on Monday June, 18, they have.
Since May 22, riding a three game losing streak and a brutal 6-0 loss to the then last place Kansas City Royals, the Yankees have been by far the best team in baseball. They have won 19 of 23, taking 12 of 15 on the road against the A's, Tigers, Angels, and Braves, and have pieced together a current nine game win streak. This much needed mid-season run has vaulted them up the standings to gain sole possession of first place in the AL East by 1.5 games over Baltimore. What's comforting is, despite the teams incessant struggles when hitting with runners in scoring position, they are simply finding ways to win ballgames. If anything, the Yankees current run can be attributed mostly to outstanding pitching, Interleague play, and an onslaught of home runs.
The starting rotation especially has come up huge for the Yankees over the past three weeks. No question, the best performance has been put up by Ivan Nova. Having received a win in each of his last five starts, Nova leads the Yankee rotation with 9 wins, and has yielded only 2 earned runs total in his last 22.2 innings pitched. Oh by the way, Nova's ERA in the month of June, 0.81. Additionally, the acquisition the Yankees made from the Dodgers this winter, Hiroki Kuroda, has also been lights out since late May. In four starts, Kuroda has given up no more then two runs, including a 7 inning, one hit gem against the Mets on June 8. In this same time, Kuroda has pitched to an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.92. As a whole, the Yankees have put together a 2.69 ERA over their last 23 games, while striking out an average of 7.8 batters per game and one complete game (Hughes, June 3 vs Detroit). The Ace and #2 will almost always step up big, but top flight contributions from a #3/4/5 starter are vital to a long streak like this and a deep run in the playoffs.
Inter-league play has always been a friend to the Yankees since its inception in 1997. With a 144-102 (.585) record, the Yankees hold the best all time Inter-league record. So getting to dabble in the National League for the past three series has no doubt helped push the Yankees over the top. I'd argue the series against the cross town rival Mets was the tipping point for the club. Coming off a 7-3 loss to the Rays, the Yankees showed a break out performance in the face of Met Ace, and recent no hitter hurler, Johan Santana, as they hung a nine-spot on the stud. Good play continued through the weekend as they ended up sweeping the Mets... then the Braves... and finally the seemingly untouchable Washington Nationals. Winning Friday's match-up against Gio Gonzalez was especially impressive, as Gio has a past of dominating the Yankees back in his Oakland days. Looking ahead, the Yankees start another three game set against the Braves at the Stadium before finishing up Inter-league play at Citi Field against the Mets. Sure its a stretch, but the Yankees have a chance to go 15-0 in Inter-league games this year, plus extend their win streak to 15 consecutive games.
Finally, the theme of the 2012 Yankees is to live and die with the long ball. Of the Yankees 45 wins this season, only ONE has been without the help of a homerun. Think about that. Even during this 19-4 stretch, in the four games they lost, they all happened in games where they failed to hit a homerun. The Yankees currently lead the majors in homers with 99, and are ranked second in Slugging (.450), OPS (.785), and Run Differential (+56), just behind the Texas Rangers (.457/.799/+87). They have hit 36 HR in the last 22 game (1.6/game) and are averaging over 5 runs/game.
Now while tremendous power up and down the lineup is a huge advantage for the Yankees, it also poises a major flaw that might effect the success of the club in October. Homeruns can win you 90 to 100 game in the regular season, as well as the Derby, but come playoff time, the long ball is a scarce commodity as pitching elevates to a more refined level then compared to the regular season. The Fall Classic showcases the best of the best in the sport, and with that territory comes a strong aversion to giving up homeruns. Thus, the return of Brett Gardner to the line up in three weeks or so is crucial to the development of this team as far as creating runs. Gardner is a pesky hitter, who with a high On Base Percentage and lightning speed can cause mayhem on the base-paths for other teams. Gardner brings a diverse unique skill-set to the table that this current Yankee roster desperately lacks. Hopefully when he returns, more small ball wins will come just in time to mold the club into form for a deep playoff run.
All streaks come to an end. This one stops at 16 (Whitey Ford's number).
~Shilz
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